What will Trump say during the State of the Union address?
Tue, Feb 24, 2026
12:00 AM UTC
Total Volume
$1,757,598
across 15 markets
Liquidity
$196,630
Status
Closed
Keyword Markets
15 marketsKeyword
The word or phrase being counted in the transcript. Markets resolve based on how many times it's mentioned.
Historical
Past occurrence data from official transcripts.6M free. Unlock 12M, 36M & Adapted with Pro.
EWMA: Recent events weighted higher (λ=0.85)
Price & Best Pick
Current market prices. The highlighted side shows the better expected value based on historical data. Click to toggle.
based on last 6 months
EV
Expected Value = Historical probability / Current price.Values above 1.0x indicate potential edge. Higher is better.
Historical
American 25+ timesyes
$344,560 vol100% hit rate
Resolved: yes
Cryptono
$330,713 vol0% hit rate
Resolved: no
Biden 10+ timesno
$325,541 vol0% hit rate
Resolved: no
Trillion 15+ timesyes
$159,242 vol83% hit rate
Resolved: yes
Job 20+ timesno
$118,366 vol83% hit rate
Resolved: no
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Analyzed Historical Data
5 events analyzedFull transcripts analyzed for keyword frequency patterns
Trump Joint Address to Congress 2025Joint Address to Congress
Tue, Mar 4, 2025
Duration:100 minWords:8,500Source:C-SPAN/White House Archives
First major address of Trump's second term. Longest such address in history at 1 hour 40 minutes.
Trump State of the Union 2020State of the Union
Tue, Feb 4, 2020
Duration:78 minWords:6,500Source:C-SPAN/White House Archives
Third and final State of the Union of Trump's first term. Delivered during impeachment proceedings.
Trump State of the Union 2019State of the Union
Tue, Feb 5, 2019
Duration:82 minWords:5,900Source:C-SPAN/White House Archives
Second official State of the Union address. Delayed due to government shutdown.
Trump State of the Union 2018State of the Union
Tue, Jan 30, 2018
Duration:80 minWords:5,900Source:C-SPAN/White House Archives
First official State of the Union address of Trump's presidency.
Trump Address to Joint Session 2017Joint Address to Congress
Tue, Feb 28, 2017
Duration:60 minWords:5,600Source:C-SPAN/White House Archives
First major address of Trump's first term. Not officially a SOTU as it was his first year in office.
EV Analysis
Expected value based on history
Data period:
0
>1.2x EV
2
~1x EV
5
<1x EV
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Resolution Rules
- ✓Verbal mentions only (audio/video)
- ✓Plurals and possessives count
- ✗Written statements excluded
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