What will Powell say during January Press Conference?
Wed, Jan 28, 2026
07:30 PM UTC
Total Volume
$449,034
across 17 markets
Liquidity
$103,192
Status
Active
Keyword Markets
17 marketsKeyword
The word or phrase being counted in the transcript. Markets resolve based on how many times it's mentioned.
Historical
Past occurrence data from official transcripts.6M free. Unlock 12M, 36M & Adapted with Pro.
EWMA: Recent events weighted higher (λ=0.85)
Price & Best Pick
Current market prices. The highlighted side shows the better expected value based on historical data. Click to toggle.
based on last 6 months
EV
Expected Value = Historical probability / Current price.Values above 1.0x indicate potential edge. Higher is better.
Historical
Good afternoon
$200,410 vol1.01x
100% hit rate
Inflation 40+ times
$68,083 vol1.04x
83% hit rate
Trump
$45,448 vol1.04x
17% hit rate
Median
$28,173 vol1.52x
83% hit rate
Inflation 50+ times
$15,720 vol1.11x
83% hit rate
14 more markets locked
Unlock all markets with full historical data
Historical Mentions
"Inflation"
58
Avg mentions
12
Past events
Where does Powell mention "Inflation"?696 total
Prepared Speech24%
Q&A76%
Active Markets for Inflation
40+ times
Yes price85¢
Hist. rate92%
+7% edge
50+ times
Yes price56¢
Hist. rate67%
+11% edge
60+ times
Yes price27¢
Hist. rate33%
+6% edge
Mentions
Average
Analyzed Historical Data
12 events analyzedFull transcripts analyzed for keyword frequency patterns
FOMC Press Conference - December 2025
Wed, Dec 10, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - October 2025
Wed, Oct 29, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - September 2025
Wed, Sep 17, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - July 2025
Wed, Jul 30, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - June 2025
Wed, Jun 18, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - May 2025
Wed, May 7, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - March 2025
Wed, Mar 19, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - January 2025
Wed, Jan 29, 2025
FOMC Press Conference - December 2024
Wed, Dec 18, 2024
FOMC Press Conference - November 2024
Thu, Nov 7, 2024
FOMC Press Conference - September 2024
Wed, Sep 18, 2024
FOMC Press Conference - July 2024
Wed, Jul 31, 2024
EV Analysis
Expected value based on history
Data period:
Best Opportunity
SEP 4+ times
2.94x
Expected Value
6
>1.2x EV
9
~1x EV
1
<1x EV
6 markets show positive expected value based on historical patterns. 3 high-confidence.
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Resolution Rules
- ✓Verbal mentions only (audio/video)
- ✓Plurals and possessives count
- ✗Written statements excluded
- ✗AI-generated content excluded