What places will Trump mention during the State of the Union address?
Tue, Feb 24, 2026
12:00 AM UTC
Total Volume
$691,934
across 41 markets
Liquidity
$78,882
Status
Closed
Keyword Markets
41 marketsKeyword
The word or phrase being counted in the transcript. Markets resolve based on how many times it's mentioned.
Historical
Past occurrence data from official transcripts.6M free. Unlock 12M, 36M & Adapted with Pro.
EWMA: Recent events weighted higher (λ=0.85)
Price & Best Pick
Current market prices. The highlighted side shows the better expected value based on historical data. Click to toggle.
based on last 6 months
EV
Expected Value = Historical probability / Current price.Values above 1.0x indicate potential edge. Higher is better.
Historical
Chinano
$71,229 volNo history
Resolved: no
Iranyes
$46,692 volNo history
Resolved: yes
Ukraineyes
$34,771 volNo history
Resolved: yes
Somaliano
$32,964 vol83% hit rate
Resolved: no
Greenlandno
$27,790 vol83% hit rate
Resolved: no
38 more markets locked
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EV Analysis
Expected value based on history
Data period:
0
>1.2x EV
0
~1x EV
0
<1x EV
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What you get
- ✓Full historical data
36+ months of keyword mention counts
- ✓EV analysis
Expected value calculations on every market
- ✓Speech vs Q&A breakdown
See if mentions were scripted or under pressure
- ✓All event types
FOMC, earnings calls, podcasts, political speeches
- ✓Real-time alerts
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Limited access by design. Price increases at 10, 25, 50, and 100 subscribers. We keep subscriber count low so our data stays valuable — if everyone has it, no one has an edge.
Resolution Rules
- ✓Verbal mentions only (audio/video)
- ✓Plurals and possessives count
- ✗Written statements excluded
- ✗AI-generated content excluded